Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
